Days After

This is tough time...tougher times ahead. Matter of survival confuses whether to be thinking for now OR, think for times beyond. I choose to act for now but, think for beyond. Of course there are big questions and dependencies on way to be able to peep in future and that does not stop me from thinking. We all have been planning for retirement without knowing whether there will be a time to retire. All planning are done Because there are uncertainties. There is no harm in doing a  Think - Exercise when we are locked from any field action. Obviously we are tense knowing numbers and, afraid of knowing names.

It's not for the first time in last hundred years that world in majority at a time has not been exposed to change by epidemic, wars or other conflicts and, evolution of technology. Yet, as I experience it closely now, I think now. About various changes expected post Corona pandemic recovery and normalcy phase, although I have no clue how much time it will take. What I focus here is the business premise of Real Estate and infrastructure. As a positive exercise, I invite opinions of people connected to these industries on change expected in following think points:

1. Gap between Need and want for house/ commercial spaces purchase.

2. Expenditure pattern of Disposable income 

3. Buyer behaviour and its influence locus

4. Supply chain reliability

5. Import/ export of goods and services and changing sources and partners

Personally I am of the opinion is that the situation is worse for a few industries such as Travel, Hospitality, Real estate topping the list. For Real estate in India we already have been experiencing a few changes lately –

1. Buyers of millennial more interested in renting than buying

2. Low cost housing doing well but, micro sizes in metros, with ticket size of more than 40 Lakh, are not welcome.

3. Larger layouts with social amenities preferred over stand alone buildings.

4. Tier 3 cities showing gravity for development.

5. Technology diffusion is faster.

Hence, amidst the financial crisis with lower sales multiplying trouble for realtors, the Corona crisis comes as a big jolt. Particularly at a time when we were about to forget de-monetization and digest GST change. One thing is sure that issues mentioned above will be taking a giant shape for us to ignore them. Unrest in labour segment is also not new. We saw that at the time of de-monetization. However, this time the disbelief in them will be rooted deeper. This will surely increase the cost provided, god forbid, situations worsen at rural areas.

As more and more funds shall be utilized for essential item industries, fewer funds will be available for Real estate and particularly when market will be more vulnerable to shifting preferences in demand. Financing, as such not my strength hence would request relevant experts to express their views. However, one needs to be careful in analyzing the situation in longer future. This pain that Corona is giving us, is in magnanimous proportions and the dent in minds are going to be bigger than in physical life. I understand that it is important when and with how much damage to lives, economy and psych of people does this situation end. Time is rather one most important factor. India is experiencing just a comma in life compared to many other countries. Its not my insensitivity towards current tragedy to many thousand families in grief. It is just a reminder to expect next big hazard on way - economic sickness, if not collapse.

I once again invite opinions of industry people on above mentioned five issues and changes expected. Wishing all best for their health. Keep safe.